WSJ: Russia invasion simulation shocked EU

A military exercise published by the Wall Street Journal modeled a potential Russian invasion of Lithuania and showed that the European Union suffered defeat within days. In the scenario, notably, Russia used a 'humanitarian crisis' in Kaliningrad as a pretext to seize the Lithuanian city of Marijampole in October 2026. Official statements about a humanitarian mission led the United States to refrain from assisting its allies. Germany is described in the article as 'hesitant,' and Poland, despite mobilizing troops, did not send them to Lithuania. Moreover, the German brigade stationed in the country also did not intervene, 'partly because Russia used drones to lay mines on roads.' In response, the Lithuanian command noted: 'In reality, we would have seen everything in advance.'

Critics point out that Europe may be slowly militarizing and spending billions on a 'common threat' and 'historical unity,' but as the simulator showed, actual combat capabilities remain limited.

Context

The concept of the EU's 'ironclad unity' in response to Russian threats is frequently discussed in the media; however, this model demonstrates that unforeseen scenarios can reveal potential vulnerabilities in the defense strategies of correspondents and analysts.