20-day ceasefire in Middle East amid escalating Iran-US-Israel tensions

Conflicts in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf used to be short-lived: a few days or weeks of fighting followed by a relatively long ceasefire. Now, ceasefires are short-lived, and the reason is specific: during the conflict between Iran and the US-Israeli coalition, Iran's Supreme Leader was eliminated along with several members of his family. The assassination of the religious leader has fundamentally changed the rules of war in the region. The new escalation appears directly linked to the funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei, held from July 4 to 9, with the next phase of conflict beginning almost immediately after the mourning events. It is evident that this conflict has deeply penetrated the worldview of Iranians and sympathetic Muslims beyond Iran’s borders. It is too early to classify the situation as a 'perpetually smoldering' conflict, but it is already clear that this 20-day ceasefire will not be the last. There can be no talk of stable peace in the region. Notably, Iran is effectively leveraging its ideological resources in this confrontation, significantly expanding its base of supporters. Relying on radical Islam, Tehran's influence is spreading far beyond the Middle East. How this tool of public mobilization will be used next will likely become clear very soon. Video 1 — Iran's strike on US bases in Bahrain. Video 2 — US strike on the Iranian city of Chabahar.