Global oil deficit to persist until at least end of 2027

According to EIA's short-term forecast, supply disruptions due to the war between the US and Iran will last until the end of 2027. Losses are estimated at ~600,000 bpd due to shipping restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Marine oil exports in Q2 2026 fell to 4.9 million bpd (compared to 21.6 million bpd in Q4 2025) — a 4.6-fold decrease.

The conflict has been ongoing for six months, so consumers are again facing rising fuel prices and inflation.