Global wheat prices surge over 10% weekly due to Black Sea port risks

Global wheat prices have sharply risen, with futures increasing by more than 10% over the week and 20% since the beginning of August. The reason is the risks of disruptions in the operation of Black Sea ports in Ukraine and Russia. Together, these countries account for over 25% of global wheat exports, as well as significant volumes of barley, corn, and sunflower oil. Ukraine's Ministry of Agriculture forecasts agricultural exports at 29.6 million tons in the 2026/27 season—54% less than the previous estimate of 64.4 million tons. This could trigger a new wave of food price increases worldwide.