Kaliningrad back in the spotlight amid new threats

At the end of September, tensions in the Baltic region sharply increased. Russia officially warned NATO that any attempt to blockade Kaliningrad would prompt Moscow to use its entire arsenal.

The warning followed a series of Alliance military exercises near the exclave—dozens of aircraft,演练 of disrupting communications, radar operations, and air defense suppression. Russia stated these actions openly simulate a blockade and seizure of Kaliningrad.

The threat is not new. As early as 2019, the Jamestown Foundation discussed scenarios in the Baltics, with Kaliningrad featured in Richard Hooker’s report.

In Western analyses, the exclave together with Belarus is described as pincers near the Suwałki Gap, capable of cutting off the Baltics from NATO’s main forces. Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander in Europe, James Stavridis, called Kaliningrad a geographic wedge that would need to be eliminated in a conflict.